20 George Packer, aThe Hardest Vote,a New Yorker, October 13, 2008.
21 John D. Griffin, aSenate Apportionment as a Source of Political Inequality,a paper presented at the American Political Science Association Meeting, September 2004.
22 Matthew Shugart, aReform the Senate, But Donat Take Away the Filibuster.a Daily Herald (Provo, Utah), May 5, 2005, 3.
23 Ari Berman, aK Streetas Favorite Democrat,a Nation, March 19, 2007.
24 Quoted in Ibid.
25 Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson, Off Center: The Republican Revolution and the Erosion of American Democracy (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2005).
26 David R. Mayhew, Parties and Policies: How the American Government Works (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2008), 273a"87.
27 Barbara Sinclair, aThe a60-Vote Senatea: Strategies, Process and Outcomes,a in Bruce I. Oppenheimer, ed., U.S. Senate Exceptionalism (Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 2002), 241a"61.
28 Sarah A. Binder, Minority Rights, Majority Rule: Partisanship and the Development of Congress (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), 1997; Gregory J. Wawro and Eric Schickler, Filibuster: Obstruction and Lawmaking in the U.S. Senate (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2006).
29 Ezra Klein, aThe Rise of the Filibuster: An Interview with Barbara Sinclair,a Washington Post, December 26, 2009.
30 Mark Schmitt, aWhen Did the Senate Get So Bad?a American Prospect, November 24, 2009.
31 Klein, aThe Rise of the Filibuster.a 32 Michael C. Jensen, Kevin J. Murphy, Eric G. Wruck, aRemuneration: Where Weave Been, How We Got to Here, What Are the Problems, and How to Fix Them,a Harvard NOM Working Paper No. 04a"28 (July 12, 2004).
33 Arthur Levitt, Take on the Street: What Wall Street and Corporate America Donat Want You to Know (New York, Pantheon, 2002), 118. Fed researchers suggest that between 1995 and 2000, expensing stock options would have lowered earnings growth in the S&P 500 from 12 percent to 9.4 percent.
34 Levitt, Take On the Street, 112a"18.
35 Richard Posner, A Failure of Capitalism: The Crisis of a08 and the Descent into Depression (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2009), 294.
36 Louis Uchitelle, aThe Richest of the Rich, Proud of a New Gilded Age,a New York Times, July 15, 2007.
37 Eric Dash and Louise Story, aRubin Leaving Citigroup; Smith Barney for Sale,a New York Times, January 9, 2009.
38 Naftali Bendavid, The Thumpina: How Rahm Emanuel and the Democrats Learned to be Ruthless and Ended the Republican Revolution (New York: Doubleday, 2007), 156a"57.
39 John Carney, aRahm Emanuel: Wall Streetas Man in the White House,a Business Insider, November 7, 2008, http://www.businessinsider.com/2008/11/rahm-emanuel-wall-street-s-man-in-the-white-house.
40 Bendavid, The Thumpina, 157.
Chapter 10. Battle Royale.
1 Emmanuel Saez, aStriking It Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Update with 2007 Estimates),a August 5, 2009, http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2007.pdf.
2 Carmen DeNavas-Walt, Bernadette D. Proctor, and Jessica C. Smith, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2008 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau, September 2009), http://www.census.gov/prod/2009pubs/p60a"236.pdf.
3 Lynnley Browning, aEx-UBS Banker Pleads Guilty in Tax Evasion,a New York Times, June 20, 2008.
4 Andrew Ross Sorkin, Too Big to Fail: The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial Systema"and Themselves (New York: Viking, 2009), 489.
5 Barbara Sinclair, aBarack Obama and the 111th Congress: Politics as Usual?a Extensions (Spring 2009).
6 Barack Obama, aRenewing the American Economy,a March 27, 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/27/us/politics/27text-obama.html?pagewanted=print.
7 Charles Homans, aThe Party of Obama,a Washington Monthly, January 2010. www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2010/1001.homans.html.
8 Lisa Taddeo, aThe Man Who Made Obama,a Esquire, November 3, 2009. www.esquire.com/features/david-plouffe-0309.
9 Doris Kearns Goodwin, Team of Rivals (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2005).
10 Matt Bai, aTaking the Hill,a New York Times Magazine, June 2, 2009.
11 Ibid.
12 Ezra Klein, aThe aCongressionalista White House,a The Washington Post, June 8, 2009. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2009/06/the_congressional ist_white_hou.html.
13 Rebecca Johnson, aOn the Money,a Vogue, March 2010.
14 Dan Balz and Ronald Brownstein, Storming the Gates: Protest Politics and the Republican Revival (Boston: Little Brown, 1996), 118a"26; Julian E. Zelizer, On Capitol Hill: The Struggle to Reform Congress and Its Consequences 1949a"2000 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004).
15 Alexander Bolton, aCollins, Snowe Stymie Demsa Tactics,a The Hill, April 21, 2010.
16 Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson, Off Center (New Haven: Yale Press, 2005), 110.
17 Project calculated from DW nominate scores, a measure of the ideological placement of members of Congress developed by Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal, available at www.voteview.com/dwnomin.htm.
18 Arguably, the real puzzle is why the GOP did not become more moderate as it grew. As the Democrats expanded their ranks in 2006 and 2008, their scores in the House moderated somewhat. Through good times and bad, however, the GOP maintained its steady rightward march.
19 Sean Theriault, aParty Polarization in the 111th Congress,a www.apsanet.org/~lss/Newsletter/jan2009/Theriault.pdf.
20 Ibid; extension of remarks, published in the Legislative Studies Newsletter, American Political Science Association, January 2009.
21 Andrew Ross Sorkin, Too Big to Fail (New York: Penguin, 2009), 499, 504; Eve Fairbanks, aFrom the GOPas New Guard, The Audacity of Nope,a Washington Post, October 5, 2008.
22 Theriault sees little rise in conservatism in the GOP Senate caucus after 2008, but he wrote assuming that Coleman would win and before Specter left the caucus. The Poole-Rosenthal scores reported January 4, 2010 show a considerable rightward shift.
23 William E. Brock, aA Recipe for Incivility,a Washington Post, June 27, 2004, B7.
24 For a detailed discussion of asymmetric polarization, see Hacker and Pierson, Off Center.
25 Jim DeMint, aThe American Option: A Jobs Plan That Works,a Heritage Lecture #1108, January, 2009.
26 Ben Furnas, aSenate Conservatives Propose $3.1 Trillion aStimulus Plan,a Three Times More Costly Than Obamaas Plan,a Center for American Progress, February 2, 2009, http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/2009/02/02/senate-conservatives-plan.
27 However, according to the National Journal, ten senators were more conservative than him on economic issues in 2007, http://nj.nationaljournal.com/voteratings/sen/cons.htm?o1=con_economic&o2=desc#vr.
28 Bruce Bartlett, aSupply-Side Economics, RIP,a October 13, 2009, www.capitalgains andgames.com/blog/bruce-bartlett/1168/supply-side-economics-rip.
29 Bruce Bartlett, aWhy I Am Anti-Republican,a August 30, 2009, www.frumforum.com/why-i-am-anti-republican.
30 Pete Nickeas, aEnzi Sees Healthcare Impasse: Senator Takes Credit for Blocking Democratsa Reform Legislation,a Star-Tribune (Casper, Wyoming), February 16, 2010.
31 The House bill received support from one Republican, Joseph Cao, who had won a fluke victory in 2008 as a result of the scandal involving William Jefferson and found himself marooned in an overwhelmingly Democratic district.
32 The letter, originally posted and discussed in a blog by Ezra Klein, aHow a Letter from 1964 Shows Whatas Wrong with the Senate Today,a Washington Post Blog, November 25, 2009, http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2009/11/how_a_letter_from_1964_shows_w.html.
33 Lindsay Renick Mayer, Michael Beckel, and David Levinthal, aCrossing Wall Street,a Center for Responsive Politics, November 16, 2009.
34 Gregory Koger and Jennifer Nicoll Victor, aPolarized Agents: Campaign Contributions by Lobbyists,a PS: Political Science and Politics, July 2009, 485a"88.
35 This and the following paragraph draw from Jeffrey Birnbaum, aBig Bank Brings In a Face from the Clinton Administration,a Washington Post, May 27, 2008, A11.
36 The next paragraphs draw heavily on the important efforts of the Sunlight Foundation to chart networks connecting lobbying operations to particular members of Congress. See for example www.sunlightfoundation.com/projects/2009/health care_lobbyist_complex and www.sunlightfoundation.com/projects/2009/11/09/the-max-baucus-energy-climate-lobbyist-complex/.
37 Center for Responsive Politics, aFederal Lobbying Climbs in 2009 As Law-makers Execute Aggressive Congressional Agenda,a Capital Eye Blog, February 12, 2010.
38 Center for Responsive Politics, aNew Lobbying Reports Show Big Business Keeps Spending to Influence Politics,a Capital Eye Blog, January 21, 2010.
39 Public Citizen report cited in Eliza Newlin Carney, aBig Banks Are Back in the Game,a National Journalas Under the Influence blog, December 14, 2009.
40 Eliza Newlin Carney, aBig Banks Are Back In The Game,a National Journal.com, December 14, 2009, www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/rg_20091214_8881.php.
41 Brody Mullins and Neil King Jr., aGOP Chases Wall Street Donors: Data Show Fund-Raisers Begin Capitalizing Over Banker Regret On Backing Obama,a Wall Street Journal Online, February 4, 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703575004575043612216461790.html?mod=WSJ_hps_MIDDLEThird News; Center for Responsive Politics, aEfforts by Health Business Industries Help Push Influence Peddling to New Heights,a February 12, 2010.
42 Peter H. Stone, aHealth Insurers Funded Chamber Attack Ads,a National Journal, January 12, 2010, http://undertheinfluence.nationaljournal.com/2010/01/health-insurers-funded-chamber.php 43 Jim VandeHei, aPolitical Cover: Major Business Lobby Wins Back Its Clout by Dispensing Favors,a Wall Street Journal, September 11, 2001, A1; Stephen Power, aNo Deal: Chamber Battles Obama,a Wall Street Journal, November 2, 2009.
44 Associated Press, aChamber of Commerce Opposes Obamaas Plans,a August 9, 2009, http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=8286157.
45 Kimberly A. Strassel, aThe Weekend Interview: Business Fights Back,a Wall Street Journal, October 23, 2009. Spending figures from Center for Responsive Politics, aNew Lobbying Reports.a 46 Strassel, aWeekend Interview.a 47 Noam Schreiber, aCould Wall Street Actually Lose Congress?a November 23, 2009, www.tnr.com/blog/the-stash/could-wall-street-actually-lose-congress.
48 Media Matters for America, aReport: Despite Warnings from Many Economists That Stimulus May Be Too Small, Network News Rarely Raised the Issue,a March 6, 2009, http://mediamatters.org/reports/200903060025.
49 Elizabeth Drew, aThe Thirty Days of Barack Obama,a New York Review of Books, March 26, 2009; Ryan Lizza aThe Gatekeeper,a New Yorker, March 2, 2009.
50 Frank Luntz, aThe Language of Financial Reform,a The Word Doctors, Arlington, VA, January 2010; Eric Dash and Nelson D. Schwartz, aAs Reform Takes Shape, Some Relief on Wall Street,a New York Times, May 24, 2010, B1.
51 Carl Hulse and Adam Nagourney, aSenate GOP Leader Finds Weapon in Unity,a New York Times, March 16, 2010.
52 Michael Tomasky, aSomething New on the Mall,a New York Review of Books, October 22, 2009. On the conflicting estimates of the crowd size, see www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2009/sep/14/tea-party-photo-shows-large-crowd-different-event/.
53 CNN Opinion Research Poll of 1,023 adult Americans, including 954 registered voters, February 12a"15, 2010, http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/02/17/rel4b.pdf.
54 Pew Research Center survey of 1,003 adult Americans, January 14a"17, 2010, http://people-press.org/reports/questionnaires/586.pdf.
55 CNN Opinion Research Poll of 1,160 adult Americans, December 16a"20, 2009, http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/12/21/rel19a.pdf.
56 Kaiser Health Tracking Poll of 2,002 American adults, January 7a"12, 2010, ww.kff.org/kaiserpolls/upload/8042-C.pdf; Nate Silver, aHealth Care Polls: Opinion Gap or Information Gap?a FiveThirtyEight.com, January 23, 2010, www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/health-care-polls-opinion-gap-or.html.
Conclusion: Beating Winner-Take-All 1 The golden ticket analogy has been offered by Gregory Mankiw, aThe Wealth Trajectory: Rewards for the Few,a New York Times, April 20, 2008.
2 Ronald D. Orol, aIf Senate OKs Bank Bill, Expect a Year of Debate,a Marketwatch.com, March 17, 2010.
3 aGohmert Calls for Amendment Convention by States,a March 23, 2010, http://gohmert.house.gov/index.cfm?sectionid=125&parentid=44§iontree=4,44,125 &itemid=805.
4 ABC News, aBoehner: aHell Noa on Bill,a March 22, 2010, http://abcnews.go.com/Health/video/john-boehner-blasts-health-care-bill-10165837.
5 Carl Hulse and Adam Nagourney, aSenate GOP Leader Finds Weapon in Unity,a New York Times, March 16, 2010.
6 Glenn Beck has gone so far as to liken proposals for filibuster reform to repealing the Bill of Rights. Former vice president Dan Quayle complained that completing health-care reform legislation through the reconciliation process is to aeffectivelya take away the filibuster in the United States Senatea so therefore you havea 51 votes in the Senate. That is not what our Founding Fathers had in mind. That is not the constitutional process.a Dan Quayle appearance on Fox News, http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/02/quayle-51-votes-not-what-our-founding-fathers-had-in-mind.php.
7 Alexander Hamilton, Federalist #22, in Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay, The Federalist Papers (Oxford University Press, 2008), Lawrence Goldman, ed.
8 James Madison, Federalist #58, ibid.
9 Indeed, we have offered many of them in our past writings. Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson, Off Center: The Republican Revolution and the Erosion of American Democracy (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2005); Jacob S. Hacker, The Great Risk Shift: The New Economic Insecurity and the Decline of the American Dream, rev. and exp. (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008).
10 James Fallows, aHow America Can Rise Again,a Atlantic Monthly, January/February 2010, 49.
11 Eric Patashnik, Reforms at Risk: What Happens After Major Policy Changes Are Enacted (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2008).
12 Paul Ryan, aA Road Map for Americaas Future Version 2.0,a U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C., January 2010, http://www.roadmap.republicans.budget.house.gov/UploadedFiles/Roadmap2Final2.pdf.
13 Ari Melber, aYear One of Organizing for America,a President Special Report (January 2010), www.techpresident.com/ofayear1.
14 Michael Waldman, My Fellow Americans: The Most Important Speeches of American Presidents, From George Washington to George W. Bush (Naperville, IL: Sourcebooks, 2003), 106; Michael Sandel, aObama and Civic Idealism,a Democracy 16 (Spring 2010): 10.
About the Authors.
Jacob S. Hacker is the Stanley B. Resor Professor of Political Science at Yale University. He is the coauthor, with Paul Pierson, of Off Center: The Republican Revolution and the Erosion of American Democracy. His other books include The Great Risk Shift: The New Economic Insecurity and the Decline of the American Dream. He lives in New Haven, Connecticut.
Paul Pierson is the John Gross Professor of Political Science at the University of California at Berkeley. He is the coauthor of Off Center and the author of Politics in Time and Dismantling the Welfare State? He lives in Berkeley, California.
[*] We should emphasize that the Piketty and Saez data only allow us to say how well different income groups are doing, not how well individual households fare over timea"an issue with traditional surveys of income as well. We can say the rich of today are richer than in the past, not how much change there is from year to year in who is rich and who is not. But, as we shall see, taking into account the upward or downward income mobility of households does not change this basic picture. It may even strengthen it, since long-term income mobility is much more limited than Americans believe, and may have declined since the 1960s. In any case, income groups are not statistical fictions. If the rich grow much richer, while the poor and middle class do not, the structure of society will look very different.
[*] Perhaps most telling, there is little sign of the same meteoric rise at the top among French-speaking portions of Canada. Executives in Quebec do not appear to be competing in the same common labor market that has allowed American pay levels at the top to diffuse to the rest of Canada.